Asserting Autonomy: Strategic Investment in State Capacity in Opposition Local Governments in Autocracies

by: Rachael McLellan

How do opposition local governments (LGs) change how autocrats manage competition? How can opposition LGs resist regime attempts to hamstring them? Opposition LGs change the strategic interaction between opposition parties and regimes because local state capacity gives opposition politicians the agency to act autonomously. Opposition LGs invest in local state capacity to reduce dependency on the regime which allows them to act in defiance of the regime from within the state. This allows opposition LGs to assert their autonomy despite the systematic and ad hoc disadvantages imposed on them, making it harder for autocrats to control political competition. I draw on interviews with local politicians and bureaucrats to analyze shifts in the strategic interaction between opposition-led LGs and the regime in Tanzania between 2005 and 2018. Using a novel dataset of taxation and transfers from 2010-2017, I show that opposition LGs invest more in local fiscal capacity and that this difference is particularly stark during crackdowns on opposition parties. I contend that this strategic investment in state capacity allows opposition parties to survive despite repeated attempts to undermine them.

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